GMT+9
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output, Bank of Japan, US- PPI, University of Michigan
- U.S. weekly Jobless and the latest Retail Sales data were lackluster. worries continue to mount over Iraq.
- Australian Employment data fell short of expectations in May with net employment falling, rather than increasing as expected, Recent job growth has been disappointing. The AUD was not impacted adversely by the report.
- Friday's economic calendar features a Bank of Japan policy Board meeting, US PPI and the preliminary monthly University of Michigan Survey.
1. News on major currencies:
USD
- The ICE dollar index DXY -0.03% , which pits the dollar against six other currencies, fell to 80.563 versus 80.784 late Wednesday. The WSJ Dollar Index XX:BUXX +0.02% , which measures the greenback against a broader basket of rivals, fell to 73.11 from 73.36.
- The U.S. stock market fell on Thursday, as a spike in oil prices and softer-than-expected economic data dented sentiment on Wall Street.
- The Treasury market made a run higher Thursday after a stellar auction of 30-year bonds saw the largest-ever allocation to buy-side investors, bolstering the market after four straight days of falling prices.
- European stocks slightly higher, with Ocado gaining. European stocks edged up Thursday, but gains for the Stoxx Europe 600 XX:SXXP +0.03% were limited by a 2.6% drop in Anglo American PLC UK:AAL -3.18% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the miner to an underweight rating from equal weight.
- The U.S. dollar dropped against the pound Thursday after the head of the Bank of England said the first interest-rate hike in the U.K. could come sooner than currently expected.
- U.K.’s FTSE 100 index turned slightly higher Thursday, though its gain was limited by a selloff in the mining sector.
- Asian stocks closed mostly lower on Thursday, after U.S. stocks broke a five-day winning streak overnight. Japan’s Nikkei Average JP:NIK -0.66% dropped 0.6% to its lowest closing level in more than a week, while the yen USDJPY +0.09% weakened against the greenback, trading at ¥102.05 from ¥101.993 on Wednesday. The broader Topix index JP:I0000 -0.58% inched down 0.1% at the close.
- Gold prices ended the U.S. day session higher and notched a three-week high Thursday. More short covering and bargain hunting were featured, as has been the case the past few sessions. Now, some safe-haven demand is also surfacing due to unrest in Iraq. August Comex gold was last up $11.90 at $1,273.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $12.40 at $1,273.50. July Comex silver last traded up $0.338 at $19.51 an ounce.
- Iraq is back in the news headlines again, as civil war has broken out in that country amid escalating violence. Iraq’s ruling government is calling on the U.S. for military aid, although such is not likely. Crude oil prices were sharply higher Thursday, mostly on the Iraq news. Gold also saw some safe-haven buying support on the news. The bigger worry is that the violence in Iraq could spread to other Arab countries.
- The big price declines in platinum and palladium prices Thursday could have seen some money coming out of those markets and into gold and silver. And some downbeat U.S. economic data that saw a rise in weekly jobless claims and lower-than-expected retail sales were also friendly for the gold market. The weaker U.S. dollar index Thursday also fell into the camp of gold market bulls.
- In other overnight news, industrial production in the European Union rose 0.8% in April from March and was up 1.4% year-on-year. The increase was a bit larger than forecast.
- The London P.M. gold fix was $1,265.75 versus the previous A.M. fixing of $1,261.75.
2. Major instruments:
EURUSD
The most likely scenario for the pair is going up to the nearest target of 1.3571.
EURJPY
The most likely scenario for the pair is going up to the nearest target of 138.98.
GBPUSD
The most likely scenario for the pair is going up to the nearest target of 1.6820.
GBPJPY
The most likely scenario for the pair is going up with the nearest target of 172.20.
USDJPY
The most likely scenario for the pair is going down with the nearest target of 101.81.
XAUUSD
The most likely scenario for gold is going up with the nearest target of 1265.2.
Important news
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References:
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