2:00 GMT
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas
- The latest Fed policy meeting minutes were dovish, as widely anticipated. They reinforced the common view that the central Bank is not in any rush to raise interest rates.
- Fed he April U.K. ex-fuel Retail Sales data saw the largest monthly increase since 2004. The data were helped by the late Easter holiday this year, but the data were far better than forecast. The GBP rallied on the news. Key Bank of England monetary policy votes were both unanimous in favor of an unchanged policy. Markets were looking for any signs of developing dissent, but there were not.
- The Bank of Japan kept policy steady as widely expected today. The central bank persisted in its constructive outlook for the future of the economy. Most observers are expecting no changes in policy for the balance of the year as it will take a while to fully assess the lasting impact of the April 1 sales tax increase.
- U.K. remains a feature with second revisions to GDP due Thursday. Flash PMI data from several key economies are due on Thursday as well. A key feature from the U.S. will be Existing Homes sales, the broadest measure of the housing market.
1. News on major currencies:
USD
- Dollar up vs. yen, euro
- U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday from the previous day's losses and ended the session with solid gains, led by advances in the consumer discretionary and energy sectors.
- Treasury prices slid Wednesday, holding losses after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting showed the central bank was focusing on how it will eventually tighten monetary policy, though it made no decisions on how to proceed.
- European stock markets rose for the first time in three days on Wednesday after euro-zone consumer confidence data rose to the highest level in more than six years in May. The Stoxx Europe 600 index XX:SXXP +0.60% rose 0.6% to close at 340.34, ending at the highest level in a week.
- The pound rose against most major currencies on Wednesday after hawkish minutes from the Bank of England indicated that some bank officials will soon be ready to vote for a rate hike.
- U.K.'s FTSE 100 index broke a two-day losing streak on Wednesday, with AstraZeneca lifting the benchmark after a group of shareholders tried to revive the Pfizer bid. The FTSE 100 index UK:UKX +0.28% rose 0.3% to close at 6,821.04, after trading as low as 6,782.80 earlier in the day.
- Asia stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with Japan down after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy on hold. The Nikkei Average JP:NIK +1.54% settled 0.2% lower, and the Topix Index JP:I0000 +1.19% dropped 0.3%. The yen USDJPY +0.16% advanced against the greenback, trading at ¥100.92 from ¥101.258 in the prior session.
- Gold prices were moderately lower in afternoon trading Wednesday, selling off just a bit after the market place perceived the latest FOMC minutes as slightly favor the hawkish camp. Prices then rebounded to near pre-FOMC report levels. A bit of a "risk-on" trader and investor mentality in the market place Wednesday and a firmer U.S. dollar index were also negatives for the safe-haven yellow metal. June gold was last down $4.70 at $1,290.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $4.00 at $1,290.75. July Comex silver last traded down $0.009 at $19.39 an ounce.
- The economic highlight of the day and arguably of the week was the Wednesday afternoon release of the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The FOMC members did discuss a "rate hike process," and the market place deemed those words just a bit hawkish. Comments from a couple of Fed officials on Tuesday were also seen to be in the hawkish camp on U.S. monetary policy. The U.S. stock market did see buying interest surface after the FOMC minutes—also pressuring the gold market somewhat.
- On other matters, recent falling U.S. Treasury bond yields are a concern to the market place, with some wondering if the U.S. is slipping back into economic recession. Bond yields are a powerful indicator of an economy's health. It could be that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve in realizing any renewed weakness in the U.S. economy. However, this notion is far from being pervasive in the market place. The next couple months of data will go a long way in determining whether the U.S. economy remains on the upswing, or is on the downswing.
- Moody's Investor Services on Wednesday cut its outlook on China's property sector from stable to negative. The firm said it expects that sector of the Chinese economy to struggle in the next 12 months.
- The Russia-Ukraine territorial crisis has not gone away, but there has been no major, fresh news on that front for a couple weeks. The Ukraine holds a presidential election on Sunday, which could produce new tension in the region. I would not be surprised to see that within the next week or so this situation flares up again to become a front-burner issue in the market place. Such would likely be a bullish development for U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar and gold.
- The London P.M. gold fixing today was $1,287.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,292.00.
EURUSD
The most likely scenario for the pair is going down to the nearest target of 1.3680.
EURJPY
The most likely scenario for the pair is going down to the nearest target of 138.89.
GBPUSD
The most likely scenario for the pair is going up to the nearest target of 1.6867.
GBPJPY
The most likely scenario for the pair is going up with the nearest target of 170.90.
USDJPY
The most likely scenario for the pair is going up with the nearest target of 101.54.
XAUUSD
The most likely scenario for gold is going up with the nearest target of 1,295.3.
Important news
Previous results
References:
Address: 1 ½ Miles Northern Highway, Suite 102, P.O. Box 1922, Belize City, Belize
Phone: +501 223 2144 * Email: support@natureforex.com
Website: http://www.naturefx-id.com
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar